EPC: Strong on paper, weak at sea: The blind spots of the maritime services ban

The European Union is preparing to adopt its 20th sanctions package targeting Russian oil exports in a bid to further constrain Moscow’s ability to finance its war machine. Although currently blocked by Hungarian and Slovak vetoes, the package would, if approved, effectively end the current price-cap regime.

Instead of allowing shipments below a set price threshold, the EU would move to an outright ban on maritime services – including insurance, shipping, financing, port access and technical support – for the transport of Russian crude and petroleum products, regardless of sale price.

The shift is significant. Around 20% of Russian oil exports are carried by tankers owned or insured by EU entities. The Kyiv School of Economics estimates the move could reduce exports by 1.4 million barrels per day in late 2026 (an 18% drop from 2025 levels) and by 0.8 million in 2027 (an 11% decline).

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